Sunday, February 22, 2009

2009 Oscar Predictions

Here are my predictions for the 2009 Oscars:

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor”
Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn in “Milk”
Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler”

Should Win: Frank Langella’s turn as Nixon was pitch perfect, sympathetic and intriguing.
Will Win: Mickey Rourke is pretty much a lock….Sean Penn could win in an upset but smart money is on Mickey.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Josh Brolin in “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt”
Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight”
Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road”

Should Win: Michael Shannon’s live-wire Revolutionary Road performance was mesmerizing, one of the best on-screen performances I’ve seen in a while.
Will Win: Heath Ledger

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie in “Changeling”
Melissa Leo in “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep in “Doubt”
Kate Winslet in “The Reader”

Should Win: Kate Winslet. Anne Hathaway’s turn in Rachel was great, but this is Kate’s year.
Will Win: Kate Winslet

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Amy Adams in “Doubt”
Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis in “Doubt”
Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler”

Should Win: Viola Davis
Will Win: This is tough...I see this going to either Marisa or Penélope. I think I’ll go with Penélope Cruz.

Best animated feature film of the year

“Bolt”
“Kung Fu Panda”
“WALL-E”

Should Win: WALL-E
Will Win: WALL-E

Achievement in art direction

“Changeling”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“The Duchess”
“Revolutionary Road”

Should Win: Revolutionary Road
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Achievement in cinematography

“Changeling”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Achievement in costume design

“Australia”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Duchess”
“Milk”
“Revolutionary Road”

Should Win: The Duchess
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Achievement in directing

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Best documentary feature

“The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)”
“Encounters at the End of the World”
“The Garden”
“Man on Wire”
“Trouble the Water”

Should Win: n/a, haven’t seen any of them myself.
Will Win: Man on Wire seems to be favored.

Best documentary short subject

“The Conscience of Nhem En”
“The Final Inch”
“Smile Pinki”
“The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306”

Should Win: n/a, haven’t seen any of them myself.
Will Win: The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306

Achievement in film editing

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best foreign language film of the year

“The Baader Meinhof Complex”
“The Class”
“Departures”
“Revanche”
“Waltz with Bashir”

Should Win: n/a, haven’t seen any of them myself.
Will Win: Waltz with Bashir

Achievement in makeup

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Hellboy II: The Golden Army”

Should Win: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Will Win: The Dark Knight

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Defiance”
“Milk”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“WALL-E”

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

“Down to Earth” from “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, Lyric by Peter Gabriel
“Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Gulzar
“O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam

Should Win: Jai Ho
Will Win: Jai Ho

Best animated short film

“La Maison en Petits Cubes”
“Lavatory - Lovestory”
“Oktapodi”
“Presto”
“This Way Up”

Should Win: Presto
Will Win: Presto

Best live action short film

“Auf der Strecke (On the Line)”
“Manon on the Asphalt”
“New Boy”
“The Pig”
“Spielzeugland (Toyland)”

Should Win: n/a
Will Win: “The Pig”

Achievement in sound editing

“The Dark Knight”
“Iron Man”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“WALL-E”
“Wanted”

Should Win: WALL-E
Will Win: Iron Man might get this as the consolation prize for getting shut out of everything else.

Achievement in sound mixing

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“WALL-E”
“Wanted”

Should Win: WALL-E
Will Win: WALL-E

Achievement in visual effects

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Iron Man”

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, though Iron Man might get it in an upset.

Adapted screenplay

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Doubt”
“Frost/Nixon”
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Original screenplay

“Frozen River”
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
“In Bruges”
“Milk”
“WALL-E”

Should Win: Frozen River
Will Win: Milk

Best motion picture of the year

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire, hands down, though Frost/Nixon is a close favorite
Will Win: I feel like this is Slumdog’s award to lose.

You can find reviews of most of the nominated movies here. Check back later for a live Oscar blog, and my own picks for the best movies of 2008.

Edit: 11:58pm - now that the winners are in, here's my tally:
I correctly predicted: Performance by an actress in a supporting role: Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”, Original screenplay: “Milk”, Adapted screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”, Best animated feature film of the year: “WALL-E”, Achievement in art direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Achievement in cinematography: “Slumdog Millionaire”, Performance by an actor in a supporting role: Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight”, Best documentary feature: “Man on Wire”, Achievement in visual effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score): “Slumdog Millionaire”, Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song): “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Gulzar, Achievement in directing: “Slumdog Millionaire”, Performance by an actress in a leading role: Kate Winslet in “The Reader”, Best motion picture of the year: “Slumdog Millionaire”

I incorrectly predicted: Best animated short film, Achievement in costume design, Achievement in makeup, Best live action short film, Best documentary short subject, Achievement in sound editing, Achievement in sound mixing, Achievement in film editing, Best foreign language film of the year, Performance by an actor in a leading role

So that's 14 right and 10 wrong.

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